ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemesis Curseloss 0:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ninja Penguinswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemesis Curse
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Tusk
dEsire · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Kidaro · 1 game
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 4 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:13
Nemesis Curse 46%Ninja Penguins 54%
The model gave 54% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 31:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 54%
Series resultNinja Penguins 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1