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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 13 games
38%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 12 games
50%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
477 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 607 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 531 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 156 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 304 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 702 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 544 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% ASAKURA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
Nemiga Gaming 75%ASAKURA 25%
The model gave 75% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:31.
Game 2prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 75%ASAKURA 25%
The model gave 75% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 75%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2