Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 21 game
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 17 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
349 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
Mars
268 picks · 409 bans
Lina
262 picks · 520 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 355 bans
Luna
237 picks · 333 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 469 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:38
Nemiga Gaming 49%Brame 51%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 1:02:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKiritych
BloodseekerNefrit
TinyTheChosenOne
Queen of PainW1sh-
InvokerAinkrad
DoomSkyLark
Dark WillowHeaven
Chaos KnightCTOMAHEH1
OmniknightLodine
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct21:44
Nemiga Gaming 46%Brame 54%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKiritych
UrsaNefrit
BatriderAinkrad
PuckW1sh-
BloodseekerTheChosenOne
BeastmasterSkyLark
ChenLodine
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
RubickHeaven
LionSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 56%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2