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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 20 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
40%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
77%

cybercats

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 13 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 10 games
90%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
22%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
56%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 7 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 435 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
486 picks · 690 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 291 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 531 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
375 picks · 538 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 606 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
350 picks · 317 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:3
Nemiga Gaming 53%cybercats 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackKiritych
45% · 30 games49% · 101 game
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Chaos Knight
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
46% · 76 games55% · 155 games
RazorEgor
Razor
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
49% · 204 games54% · 84 games
LycanDkFogas
Lycan
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
41% · 10 games51% · 225 games
IoHduo
Io
Bane
Baneso bad
52% · 409 games51% · 164 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed40:26
Nemiga Gaming 49%cybercats 51%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
52% · 158 games61% · 34 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
54% · 212 games48% · 190 games
Void SpiritEgor
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
49% · 244 games47% · 222 games
Sand KingDkFogas
Sand King
Techies
TechiesHellscream
31% · 18 games48% · 250 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Pugna
Pugnaso bad
55% · 91 game47% · 27 games
MarciHduo
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2