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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 16 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 15 games
47%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%

Kalmychata

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 5 games
20%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Warden
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 704 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
439 picks · 210 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
408 picks · 569 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 422 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 638 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 906 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 664 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:7
Nemiga Gaming 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
47% · 96 games61% · 66 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
51% · 131 game52% · 143 games
Dark SeerActor
Dark Seer
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
50% · 73 games54% · 167 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
42% · 83 games41% · 68 games
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
Spirit Breaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
52% · 77 games50% · 16 games
Warlockantoha
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct28:34
Nemiga Gaming 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
46% · 212 games52% · 158 games
WeaverRetsu
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
53% · 265 games51% · 262 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
48% · 78 games44% · 44 games
Night StalkerActor
Night Stalker
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
50% · 114 games53% · 75 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
54% · 180 games46% · 310 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 57%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2