CIS Battle · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 9 games
Svenoften banned
bashka · 8 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
Tuskoften banned
xsvampire · 7 games
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 393 bans
Tusk
376 picks · 404 bans
Dark Willow
347 picks · 207 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 504 bans
Terrorblade
329 picks · 705 bans
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 612 bans
Puck
318 picks · 799 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:20
Nemiga Gaming 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbashka
TimbersawMaTson
Storm Spirityoung G
Monkey Kingrubikon155
PangolierCovisnine
AxePalantimos
Tinyxsvampire
MarciAtoufix
DisruptorMary_y
SilencerPonlo
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Nemiga Gaming 59%Level UP 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerbashka
Slarkrubikon155
Storm Spirityoung G
MarsPalantimos
EarthshakerCovisnine
Ember SpiritMaTson
Batriderxsvampire
MarciAtoufix
PugnaMary_y
DisruptorPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2