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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 15 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
45%

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
47%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 14 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
23%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 12 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
419 picks · 192 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 614 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
297 picks · 662 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 358 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
283 picks · 451 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
281 picks · 497 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
262 picks · 227 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:42
Nemiga Gaming 55%Spider Pigzs 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
51% · 127 games54% · 17 games
Naga Sirenlil pleb
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomAinkrad
52% · 82 games46% · 131 game
TimbersawFunn1k
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
46% · 159 games49% · 115 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTheChosenOne
50% · 95 games51% · 136 games
ClockwerkMitch
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
57% · 246 games48% · 310 games
LionLeBronDota
Lion
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Nemiga Gaming 55%Spider Pigzs 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
56% · 114 games47% · 74 games
Phantom Lancerlil pleb
Phantom Lancer
Leshrac
LeshracAinkrad
45% · 110 games46% · 157 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaTheChosenOne
53% · 36 games47% · 141 game
Elder TitanFunn1k
Elder Titan
Lion
LionHeaven
53% · 174 games56% · 105 games
Shadow DemonLeBronDota
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonLodine
50% · 163 games50% · 120 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2