ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TGTeam Generationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 471 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 622 bans
Puck
300 picks · 694 bans
Mars
296 picks · 525 bans
Hoodwink
273 picks · 114 bans
Lina
257 picks · 335 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:26
Nemiga Gaming 59%Team Generation 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:13:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1