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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
70%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Hellscream · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 8 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
so bad · 8 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
84%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
88%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
79%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 344 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 328 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
263 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 194 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 143 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
179 picks · 106 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
177 picks · 497 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
174 picks · 459 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Nemiga Gaming 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
48% · 98 games40% · 42 games
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
52% · 169 games52% · 219 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKiritych
46% · 70 games50% · 208 games
Death ProphetCollapse
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickHellscream
48% · 228 games46% · 87 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Undying
Undyingso bad
61% · 201 game49% · 210 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed33:9
Nemiga Gaming 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKiritych
48% · 105 games48% · 428 games
TinyYatoro
Tiny
Broodmother
BroodmotherCorrupted
46% · 73 games53% · 143 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
44% · 102 games45% · 47 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireHellscream
48% · 296 games58% · 143 games
IoMira
Io
Bane
Baneso bad
55% · 269 games52% · 84 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct32:37
Nemiga Gaming 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKiritych
41% · 77 games64% · 50 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Broodmother
BroodmotherCorrupted
49% · 121 game59% · 20 games
Spirit BreakerCollapse
Spirit Breaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
51% · 108 games54% · 182 games
TuskLarl
Tusk
Techies
TechiesHellscream
40% · 43 games46% · 181 game
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Undying
Undyingso bad
45% · 191 game52% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3