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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 12 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
young G · 11 games
18%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
50%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 8 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kyford · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 5 games
20%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
576 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 557 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
526 picks · 375 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
507 picks · 611 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 285 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 743 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 506 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Nemiga Gaming 54%Team Spirit Academy 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautchempik
45% · 56 games46% · 86 games
Troll Warlordrubikon155
Troll Warlord
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
49% · 139 games46% · 107 games
Dark SeerSunshineRR
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
51% · 228 games50% · 278 games
Pangolier86
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
48% · 222 games57% · 126 games
Chenkyford
Chen
58% · 48 games
Nyx AssassinAidar
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Nemiga Gaming 54%Team Spirit Academy 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magechempik
55% · 26 games56% · 82 games
Juggernautrubikon155
Juggernaut
Puck
Puckyoung G
43% · 201 game53% · 161 game
TidehunterSunshineRR
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
49% · 152 games47% · 184 games
Earthshaker86
Earthshaker
Jakiro
JakiroVaniLLl
47% · 224 games56% · 169 games
Chenkyford
Chen
45% · 7 games
Witch DoctorAidar
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2