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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 9 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 7 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 7 games
14%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 33 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 30 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 26 games
54%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 25 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
467 picks · 466 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 570 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
332 picks · 151 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
284 picks · 579 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
279 picks · 521 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
270 picks · 490 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
265 picks · 571 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
265 picks · 150 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:43
Nemiga Gaming 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebashka
47% · 183 games49% · 161 game
Nature's ProphetNande
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
Kunkkayoung G
47% · 91 game53% · 268 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingCovisnine
53% · 204 games50% · 111 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
42% · 70 games50% · 195 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Jakiro
Jakiromonodrama
46% · 334 games62% · 147 games
Elder TitanLeBronDota
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct18:38
Nemiga Gaming 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbashka
49% · 266 games50% · 376 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
45% · 270 games52% · 345 games
Sand KingStojkov
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
60% · 182 games50% · 98 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Windranger
Windrangerxsvampire
50% · 229 games47% · 293 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Jakiro
Jakiromonodrama
49% · 403 games50% · 238 games
RingmasterLeBronDota
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2