Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 18 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 9 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Execration
Techies
cml · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 4 games
Phoenix
Shanks · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 656 bans
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 568 bans
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
396 picks · 708 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 944 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total62% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Neon Esports 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCije
TinyAbat
Storm SpiritKen
Dark SeerTino-
MarsJG
SnapfireShanks
PhoenixBombi
Banecml
Game 2prediction correct28:28
Neon Esports 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoCije
WindrangerAbat
Storm SpiritKen
MarsTino-
ViperJG
PhoenixShanks
MarciBombi
Clockwerkcml
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 62%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2