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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IHC Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 11 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
ace12 · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 677 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
410 picks · 193 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 535 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 421 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
348 picks · 566 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
343 picks · 170 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 638 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 832 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:36
Neon Esports 54%IHC Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 48:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCije
44% · 212 games60% · 94 games
WeaverFortuneSoul
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
47% · 103 games51% · 117 games
Brewmastereleven
Brewmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJG
50% · 100 games47% · 224 games
TinyHishge
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorBombi
47% · 121 game53% · 101 game
Tuskace12
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct41:50
Neon Esports 55%IHC Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 1:06:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCije
46% · 43 games49% · 144 games
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracKen
56% · 113 games52% · 79 games
Enigmaeleven
Enigma
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJG
46% · 111 games56% · 55 games
Monkey KingHishge
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBombi
43% · 136 games54% · 125 games
Clockwerkace12
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed12:34
Neon Esports 57%IHC Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKen
56% · 232 games51% · 129 games
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
Gyrocopter
Meepo
MeepoJG
48% · 41 game53% · 146 games
Centaur Warrunnereleven
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCije
50% · 121 game53% · 93 games
Shadow DemonHishge
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBombi
42% · 46 games44% · 72 games
Dark Willowace12
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 60%
Series resultIHC Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3