Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Infamous
Miranasignature
Nuages · 28 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 22 games
Rubick
Jupiter · 13 games
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
mini-` · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
646 picks · 689 bans
Rubick
533 picks · 343 bans
Doom
450 picks · 951 bans
Batrider
436 picks · 933 bans
Ember Spirit
412 picks · 862 bans
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 877 bans
Void Spirit
386 picks · 344 bans
Beastmaster
385 picks · 997 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:2
Neon Esports 63%Infamous 37%
The model gave 63% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaFortuneSoul
MeepoHyko
Primal BeastKen
TimbersawMr.Jeans
Skywrath MageHishge
Drow Rangermini-`
43% · 297 games
RubickJupiter
46% · 31 game
Elder TitanNuages
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Neon Esports 60%Infamous 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkFortuneSoul
BeastmasterHyko
Ember SpiritKen
Svenmini-`
RubickHishge
LeshracMr.Jeans
40% · 388 games
SnapfireJupiter
49% · 290 games
EnchantressNuages
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 69%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2