Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Made in Philippineswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
Made in Philippines
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
JG · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 3 games
Bane
Teehee · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 447 bans
Mars
484 picks · 701 bans
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
442 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 627 bans
Sand King
388 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Made in Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:33
Neon Esports 53%Made in Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 55:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawEnryu
Templar AssassinKen
ClockwerkChuaN
Sand KingRupido
WarlockSe
Dragon KnightJG
54% · 47 games
Treant ProtectorTeehee
Game 2prediction missed39:34
Neon Esports 54%Made in Philippines 46%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterEnryu
PuckJG
Winter WyvernChuaN
JuggernautKen
SnapfireSe
MarsRupido
58% · 229 games
BaneTeehee
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 59%
Series resultMade in Philippines 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2