ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 1:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Me Parbloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
Pucksignature
Ken · 6 games
Dark Willow
Hishge · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Marsoften banned
JG · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 4 games
Me Parb
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
290 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 600 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
219 picks · 188 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Me Parb
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:4
Neon Esports 73%Me Parb 27%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperKen
ViperBeebie
MarsJG
Centaur WarrunnerKNP
TechiesBombi
Lionboombell
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 86%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1