BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PPatriotsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 14 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
Patriots
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 3 games
Razoroften banned
dalul · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
460 picks · 283 bans
Mars
443 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 476 bans
Sand King
366 picks · 488 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 772 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 516 bans
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 484 bans
Pangolier
314 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Patriots
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:26
Neon Esports 49%Patriots 51%
The model gave 51% on Patriots — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterEnryu
LeshracJikroy
Shadow ShamanJing
Chaos Knightdalul
AbaddonChuaN
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
50% · 50 games
IoLym-
Game 2prediction missed4:23
Neon Esports 51%Patriots 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Patriots in 19:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterEnryu
KunkkaJikroy
RubickJing
Sand KingMamangDaya
EnchantressChuaN
Razordalul
38% · 118 games
HoodwinkLym-
Model check result
Model favoritePatriots · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2