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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 12 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 5 games
40%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
60%

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
687 picks · 476 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
611 picks · 641 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1233 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
482 picks · 1050 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 677 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Neon Esports 51%Polaris Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingFortuneSoul
49% · 361 game55% · 89 games
MedusaAkashi
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKen
53% · 233 games48% · 158 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHishge
49% · 248 games48% · 114 games
TimbersawEnryu
Timbersaw
48% · 234 games
Batridercml
Batrider
47% · 247 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 52%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1