Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SVSan Venganzaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Chenoften banned
Se · 7 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 7 games
Snapfire
Hated · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Enchantress
Se · 5 games
San Venganza
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
745 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 384 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 258 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 619 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% San Venganza
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Neon Esports 59%San Venganza 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 18:07.
Game 2prediction correct28:78
Neon Esports 59%San Venganza 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 59%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2