ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Skem · 6 games
Miranasignature
Skem · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Vici Gaming
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 9 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Ori · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
424 picks · 971 bans
Void Spirit
398 picks · 591 bans
Mars
349 picks · 631 bans
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 613 bans
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 417 bans
Phoenix
250 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Neon Esports 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSkem
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
PuckYopaj
Void SpiritOri
Centaur WarrunnerRapy
UnderlordELeVeN
MiranaPlayHard
EarthshakerPyw
TuskJaunuel
PhoenixDy
Game 2prediction missed21:29
Neon Esports 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSkem
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
PuckYopaj
Void SpiritOri
VenomancerRapy
NecrophosELeVeN
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Earth SpiritPyw
TuskPlayHard
PhoenixDy
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 54%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2