Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bombi · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
Pucksignature
Ken · 7 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 12 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Lionsignature
Jeezy · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
359 picks · 306 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 514 bans
Vengeful Spirit
321 picks · 301 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 371 bans
Magnus
254 picks · 455 bans
Luna
248 picks · 227 bans
Techies
243 picks · 155 bans
Mars
241 picks · 304 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:13
Neon Esports 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierKen
Lunalayme
MarsJG
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Keeper of the LightBombi
LionJeezy
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Neon Esports 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainKen
Svenlayme
Dragon KnightJG
LionJeezy
HoodwinkBombi
Crystal MaidenStoic
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2