Neutralcamp vs Palianytsia — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Neutralcampwin 1:0

series probability

40%60%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Palianytsialoss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neutralcamp

No games played over 6 months.

Palianytsia

Snapfire

QBFY · 5 games

80%

Doomoften banned

VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games

67%

Kunkkaoften banned

VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games

100%

Omniknightoften banned

kreker · 3 games

100%

Primal Beastoften banned

Moonlight · 3 games

100%

Tuskoften banned

kreker · 3 games

100%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Moonlight · 2 games

50%

Leshracoften banned

QBFY · 2 games

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

357 picks · 344 bans

51%

Hoodwink

354 picks · 406 bans

53%

Jakiro

348 picks · 258 bans

46%

Pangolier

324 picks · 508 bans

49%

Sven

294 picks · 305 bans

51%

Snapfire

292 picks · 262 bans

53%

Windranger

279 picks · 386 bans

53%

Dragon Knight

275 picks · 458 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%

Hero pool strength60% Palianytsia

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total60% Palianytsia

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed22:20

Neutralcamp 44%Palianytsia 56%

The model gave 56% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Neutralcamp in 36:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo