ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNextNextwin 1:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DDuBuloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NextNext
No games played over 6 months.
DuBu
Crystal Maiden
DuBu · 5 games
Gyrocopter
MSS · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Speeed · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
275 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 444 bans
Lion
230 picks · 211 bans
Tusk
229 picks · 214 bans
Nature's Prophet
227 picks · 642 bans
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 122 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% DuBu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% DuBu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
NextNext 42%DuBu 58%
The model gave 58% on DuBu — the game was taken by NextNext.
Model check result
Model favoriteDuBu · 58%
Series resultNextNext 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1