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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
NGNBloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Underdogwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NGNB

Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 1 game
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Molasses · 1 game
0%

Underdog

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 741 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 625 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 746 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
378 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1025 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 733 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Underdog
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Underdog
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:8
NGNB 46%Underdog 54%
The model gave 54% on Underdog — the game was taken by NGNB in 26:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarMolasses
44% · 23 games56% · 23 games
LifestealerQ7
Lifestealer
Game 2prediction correct10:36
NGNB 44%Underdog 56%
The model gave 56% on Underdog — the game was taken by Underdog in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMolasses
42% · 15 games58% · 15 games
Chaos KnightQ7
Chaos Knight
Game 3prediction correct16:26
NGNB 49%Underdog 51%
The model gave 51% on Underdog — the game was taken by Underdog in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanMolasses
64% · 7 games36% · 7 games
Vengeful SpiritQ7
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteUnderdog · 56%
Series resultUnderdog 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3