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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Five Beaversloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 22 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
V-Tune · 15 games
67%

Five Beavers

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
100%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
100%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
431 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
416 picks · 458 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
391 picks · 834 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 762 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 532 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 511 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 601 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Five Beavers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:34
Night Pulse 66%Five Beavers 34%
The model gave 66% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 57:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
63% · 68 games45% · 98 games
Underlordмистер мораль
Underlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerKami
58% · 110 games44% · 232 games
BatriderPERDAN4IK
Batrider
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
52% · 53 games48% · 202 games
WeaverOtaker
Weaver
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJANTER
46% · 171 game
Sven
SvenHduo
51% · 130 games
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Night Pulse 64%Five Beavers 36%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Five Beavers in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
50% · 60 games49% · 195 games
WindrangerOtaker
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
58% · 103 games46% · 175 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerKami
50% · 83 games55% · 205 games
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJANTER
43% · 193 games
Enchantress
EnchantressHduo
50% · 136 games
Game 3prediction correct39:32
Night Pulse 64%Five Beavers 36%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 53:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
50% · 51 game47% · 149 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
67% · 55 games42% · 125 games
RazorOtaker
Razor
Axe
AxeKami
48% · 20 games50% · 56 games
MarciPERDAN4IK
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJANTER
54% · 103 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
50% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 76%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3