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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 9 games
33%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
JANTER · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 8 games
38%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 21 game
76%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 406 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 567 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 522 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 222 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
407 picks · 681 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
402 picks · 450 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 590 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
354 picks · 919 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total56% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
Night Pulse 53%Natus Vincere Junior 47%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreKami
42% · 29 games52% · 183 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomDavai
53% · 181 game47% · 240 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyWorick
50% · 349 games43% · 192 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterdEsire
54% · 318 games44% · 62 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Lich
LichKidaro
56% · 73 games53% · 273 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed9:46
Night Pulse 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreKami
39% · 45 games46% · 48 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
InvokerWorick
49% · 236 games60% · 128 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyDavai
53% · 471 game43% · 369 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
51% · 183 games47% · 327 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Lich
LichKidaro
56% · 117 games53% · 180 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2