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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Snapfire
Snapfire
waveformn · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 20 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 19 games
26%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 474 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 539 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 421 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
307 picks · 317 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:31
Nightshade 46%Dragon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsChodΣX
49% · 263 games55% · 131 game
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Snapfire
Snapfirewaveformn
44% · 278 games63% · 79 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
54% · 109 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
50% · 28 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
45% · 194 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct14:22
Nightshade 46%Dragon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 19:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenix
PhoenixChodΣX
48% · 271 game47% · 163 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Clockwerk
Clockwerkwaveformn
52% · 300 games45% · 148 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
49% · 69 games
MagnusPanda
Magnus
54% · 57 games
Zeusxsvampire
Zeus
53% · 134 games
Shadow DemonMary_y
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 58%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2