European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Snapfire
waveformn · 4 games
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 3 games
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
Zero Tenacity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
428 picks · 545 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 438 bans
Luna
314 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 571 bans
Dark Willow
277 picks · 146 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
257 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nightshade 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Nightshade 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 61%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2