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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 22 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
cml · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 344 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
257 picks · 145 bans
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 385 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
243 picks · 507 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
226 picks · 493 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
225 picks · 317 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
219 picks · 292 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 251 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:40
Nigma Galaxy SEA 66%Polaris Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 38:10.
Game 2prediction missed25:14
Nigma Galaxy SEA 66%Polaris Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 66%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2