Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SBSouth Built Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 6 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Force · 4 games
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
South Built Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 974 bans
Void Spirit
424 picks · 587 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 686 bans
Mars
349 picks · 603 bans
Earth Spirit
319 picks · 293 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 182 bans
Grimstroke
273 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
273 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% South Built Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 49%South Built Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMeracle
MorphlingAbat
Outworld DestroyerAlaCrity
BeastmasterBob
MiranaPoloson
BristlebackEnryu
Snapfire343
Game 2prediction correct7:35
Nigma Galaxy SEA 49%South Built Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMeracle
RazorAbat
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Storm SpiritBob
LionPoloson
Dragon KnightEnryu
Grimstroke343
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 51%
Series resultSouth Built Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2