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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 27 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
38%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 30 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 24 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 22 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 271 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
484 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
370 picks · 1003 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
330 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
311 picks · 146 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 524 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
306 picks · 150 bans
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
303 picks · 497 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:24
Nigma Galaxy 59%1w Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
55% · 281 game46% · 160 games
UrsaMunkushi~
Ursa
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
56% · 413 games47% · 309 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSumaiL
60% · 338 games40% · 320 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Venomancer
VenomancerTobi
56% · 50 games45% · 294 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
50% · 214 games44% · 213 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct15:7
Nigma Galaxy 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 20:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
49% · 206 games50% · 66 games
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
47% · 195 games48% · 360 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
50% · 343 games55% · 86 games
Night StalkerSSS
Night Stalker
Pugna
PugnaTobi
48% · 187 games51% · 282 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Bane
BaneOmaR
50% · 108 games52% · 245 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2