ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 21 game
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
Dazzle
GH · 20 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 20 games
1w Team
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 23 games
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 18 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
489 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
Clockwerk
348 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 339 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 228 bans
Bane
304 picks · 294 bans
Pangolier
289 picks · 394 bans
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:51
Nigma Galaxy 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by 1w Team in 57:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritLorenof
Earth Spiritbzm
Shadow FiendSumaiL
KezPure~
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Axe33
PhoenixGH
Winter WyvernWhitemon
Dark WillowOmaR
HoodwinkAri
Game 2prediction missed35:60
Nigma Galaxy 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by 1w Team in 50:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperLorenof
Linabzm
WindrangerSumaiL
SvenPure~
UnderlordDavai
Doom33
BaneGH
RingmasterWhitemon
ClockwerkOmaR
HoodwinkAri
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2