DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 13 games
Chimera Esports
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 8 games
Muertasignature
OneJey · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Panto · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Panto · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
405 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 388 bans
Lion
353 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 432 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 803 bans
Phoenix
328 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 82%
Hero pool strength62% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:26
Nigma Galaxy 45%Chimera Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperSumaiL
GyrocopterTA2000
SlarkMiracle-
Storm SpiritLorenof
BristlebackNo!ob
BrewmasterDaxak
Dark WillowGH
Shadow DemonOneJey
Centaur WarrunnerOmaR
Ogre MagiPanto
Game 2prediction missed51:13
Nigma Galaxy 44%Chimera Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusSumaiL
Nature's ProphetTA2000
TinyNo!ob
MorphlingLorenof
ClinkzMiracle-
BatriderDaxak
Elder TitanGH
MuertaOneJey
LionOmaR
TuskPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 58%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2