ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEEthereal Edgeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
Dark Willow
GH · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Phoenix
GH · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
GH · 12 games
Ethereal Edge
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
436 picks · 574 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 388 bans
Luna
323 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 450 bans
Enchantress
302 picks · 572 bans
Dark Willow
285 picks · 155 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 327 bans
Sand King
258 picks · 764 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
Nigma Galaxy 91%Ethereal Edge 9%
The model gave 91% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 16:18.
Game 2prediction correct3:27
Nigma Galaxy 91%Ethereal Edge 9%
The model gave 91% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 17:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 91%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2