Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 9 games
Tusk
GH · 9 games
Bane
KuroKy · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
rmN- · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Bane
5up · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Era · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
Ari · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
580 picks · 457 bans
Mars
428 picks · 657 bans
Dragon Knight
398 picks · 523 bans
Puck
388 picks · 857 bans
Bane
378 picks · 257 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 627 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:10
Nigma Galaxy 48%Into The Breach 52%
The model gave 52% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeMiracle-
Templar AssassinSupream^
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
DawnbreakerOtaker
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
RazorXibbe
Nyx AssassinKuroKy
EnchantressKidaro
IoGH
MarciAri
Game 2prediction correct39:53
Nigma Galaxy 48%Into The Breach 52%
The model gave 52% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:04:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanSumaiL
Faceless VoidOtaker
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
InvokerSupream^
WindrangerMiracle-
ViperXibbe
ZeusGH
EnchantressKidaro
TinyKuroKy
MarciAri
Game 3prediction missed48:39
Nigma Galaxy 48%Into The Breach 52%
The model gave 52% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverMiracle-
PuckSupream^
ZeusSumaiL
DawnbreakerOtaker
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
Dragon KnightXibbe
TinyKuroKy
HoodwinkAri
TuskGH
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3