Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Tusk
GH · 9 games
Iosignature
GH · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
GH · 7 games
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 6 games
Into The Breach
Tinysignature
Ari · 17 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 16 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 11 games
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Dazzle
Kidaro · 9 games
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Slarksignature
Otaker · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
356 picks · 344 bans
Tusk
344 picks · 334 bans
Mirana
245 picks · 245 bans
Crystal Maiden
226 picks · 147 bans
Rubick
221 picks · 180 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 548 bans
Leshrac
202 picks · 418 bans
Snapfire
195 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Nigma Galaxy 55%Into The Breach 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
LycanOtaker
UrsaATF
Ember SpiritSupream^
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
ViperXibbe
EnchantressKuroKy
PhoenixKidaro
RubickGH
Earth SpiritImmersion
Game 2prediction missed
Nigma Galaxy 64%Into The Breach 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Into The Breach.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 64%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2