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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
46%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 13 games
54%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 12 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 11 games
36%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
17%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 6 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Focus · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 682 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
406 picks · 187 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 423 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 535 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
342 picks · 556 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
342 picks · 168 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 637 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 814 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
Nigma Galaxy 70%JustBetter 30%
The model gave 70% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMiracle-
56% · 171 game37% · 145 games
Dragon KnightThuG
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
55% · 129 games53% · 72 games
SlardarSkyLark
Slardar
Enigma
EnigmaFbz
56% · 96 games42% · 89 games
WindrangerFocus
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorKuroKy
54% · 115 games43% · 124 games
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Phoenix
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGH
59% · 75 games48% · 156 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct31:7
Nigma Galaxy 67%JustBetter 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
51% · 193 games52% · 190 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Morphling
MorphlingMiracle-
46% · 242 games49% · 229 games
TinyThuG
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 176 games45% · 123 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
44% · 230 games51% · 203 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKuroKy
55% · 129 games55% · 225 games
GrimstrokeAstral
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 77%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2