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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 36 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 22 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 22 games
64%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 24 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 15 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 11 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
Copy · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
432 picks · 371 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
334 picks · 787 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 329 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 830 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
277 picks · 542 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 363 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
274 picks · 623 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:21
Nigma Galaxy 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
45% · 212 games51% · 160 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckSumaiL
52% · 306 games61% · 231 game
Monkey KingNiku
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
46% · 158 games48% · 66 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Io
IoGH
39% · 26 games57% · 200 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
38% · 119 games58% · 164 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed29:10
Nigma Galaxy 46%Natus Vincere 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
51% · 162 games52% · 237 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
57% · 3 games53% · 175 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Marci
MarciNo!ob
44% · 153 games44% · 171 game
Marspma
Mars
Pugna
PugnaGH
55% · 159 games54% · 104 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Tusk
TuskOmaR
48% · 309 games50% · 99 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Game 3prediction missed21:9
Nigma Galaxy 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordGhost
61% · 39 games58% · 18 games
Anti-Magegotthejuice
Anti-Mage
Mars
MarsNo!ob
51% · 128 games39% · 220 games
Dawnbreakerpma
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
62% · 199 games37% · 95 games
SnapfireNiku
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaGH
50% · 161 game48% · 141 game
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Bane
BaneOmaR
60% · 85 games47% · 138 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3