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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 9 games
67%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
50%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Corrupted · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
JANTER · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 694 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 612 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 387 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 747 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1038 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:15
Nigma Galaxy 50%Night Pulse 50%
The model gave 50% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:09:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSumaiL
49% · 214 games47% · 189 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaMiracle-
52% · 46 games46% · 236 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
50% · 106 games56% · 107 games
ZeusWorick
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuroKy
49% · 177 games51% · 123 games
Spirit BreakerJANTER
Spirit Breaker
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
46% · 159 games60% · 47 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed23:37
Nigma Galaxy 52%Night Pulse 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMiracle-
49% · 39 games41% · 108 games
RazorV-Tune
Razor
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
little data54% · 29 games
UnderlordKami
Underlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
47% · 193 games63% · 82 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerKuroKy
49% · 48 games49% · 89 games
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeGH
54% · 111 games46% · 83 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed16:28
Nigma Galaxy 50%Night Pulse 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 45:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMiracle-
51% · 144 games55% · 115 games
MedusaV-Tune
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
47% · 154 games54% · 52 games
UnderlordKami
Underlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
49% · 162 games53% · 107 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireKuroKy
44% · 161 game46% · 189 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGH
45% · 21 game55% · 179 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 51%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3