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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 21 game
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 15 games
53%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 56 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 52 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 49 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 48 games
69%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 42 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
nesfeer · 37 games
78%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 354 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
589 picks · 297 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
543 picks · 428 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
537 picks · 641 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 300 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 743 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 530 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:37
Nigma Galaxy 66%Runa Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Runa Team in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSumaiL
50% · 171 game52% · 279 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTA2000
43% · 185 games44% · 267 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
52% · 356 games53% · 187 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOmaR
48% · 338 games46% · 240 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneGH
61% · 241 game52% · 318 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed9:35
Nigma Galaxy 67%Runa Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
54% · 261 game46% · 183 games
Windrangernesfeer
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
56% · 353 games54% · 381 game
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Marci
MarciNo!ob
52% · 247 games48% · 271 game
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
50% · 275 games44% · 254 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGH
50% · 418 games46% · 465 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 79%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2