ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
Tinysignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
Earthshakeroften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 32 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 22 games
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
562 picks · 792 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 676 bans
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 785 bans
Bristleback
403 picks · 873 bans
Clockwerk
399 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
Magnus
383 picks · 1069 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
Nigma Galaxy 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
UrsaNatsumi
LifestealerGhost
Monkey KingMikoto
Sand KingNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerWs
PhoenixGH
SnapfireJhocam
TinyOmaR
JakiroKuku
Game 2prediction correct24:14
Nigma Galaxy 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNo!ob
Monkey KingNatsumi
SvenGhost
PangolierMikoto
Dark SeerSumaiL
MagnusWs
Ancient ApparitionGH
Crystal MaidenKuku
TinyOmaR
TuskJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2