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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 28 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
33%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 46 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 30 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
72%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 26 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 26 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
649 picks · 739 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 486 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 400 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
444 picks · 301 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1094 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
399 picks · 333 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 802 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 574 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 8
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:30
Nigma Galaxy 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightrincyq
50% · 360 games55% · 216 games
SlardarNisha
Slardar
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
44% · 143 games54% · 164 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Sand King
Sand KingNo!ob
52% · 211 games50% · 237 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
53% · 252 games45% · 27 games
IoEkki
Io
Rubick
RubickOmaR
47% · 111 games47% · 433 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:37
Nigma Galaxy 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrincyq
49% · 231 game56% · 58 games
AlchemistmiCKe
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
44% · 232 games49% · 307 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomDavai
54% · 122 games42% · 246 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
55% · 269 games52% · 183 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Io
IoGH
47% · 15 games52% · 75 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 3prediction missed49:15
Nigma Galaxy 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinrincyq
49% · 53 games53% · 88 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo!ob
43% · 288 games63% · 123 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderDavai
43% · 3 games57% · 149 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Io
IoGH
44% · 18 games44% · 161 game
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
51% · 324 games47% · 165 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3