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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 26 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
39%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 19 games
53%

Team Yandex

Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Solo · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 269 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
483 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
370 picks · 1004 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
329 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
310 picks · 147 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
308 picks · 521 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
304 picks · 148 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:32
Nigma Galaxy 65%Team Yandex 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautGhost
50% · 28 games51% · 115 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
42% · 246 games55% · 329 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
47% · 444 games48% · 396 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
51% · 381 game54% · 202 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTobi
50% · 141 game54% · 198 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed13:35
Nigma Galaxy 64%Team Yandex 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetGhost
55% · 272 games47% · 337 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckSumaiL
52% · 336 games58% · 131 game
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarNo!ob
48% · 131 game47% · 317 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockTobi
51% · 289 games48% · 275 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
46% · 243 games47% · 211 games
Marciprblms
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 76%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2