GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Rubick
GH · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
GH · 5 games
Tundra Esports
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 11 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 9 games
Iooften banned
Sneyking · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
541 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
471 picks · 572 bans
Mars
431 picks · 600 bans
Weaver
419 picks · 706 bans
Kunkka
353 picks · 537 bans
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
Nigma Galaxy 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMiracle-
KunkkaNine
Ember SpiritiLTW
GyrocopterSkiter
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
Legion Commander33
EnchantressKuroKy
Monkey KingSaksa
Elder TitanGH
WeaverSneyking
Game 2prediction correct22:36
Nigma Galaxy 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaMiracle-
LunaSkiter
TinyiLTW
Sand King33
Outworld DestroyerMinD_ContRoL
InvokerNine
GyrocopterKuroKy
Monkey KingSaksa
ClockwerkGH
Shadow DemonSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2