DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Uuncrownedkingsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
GH · 15 games
Dark Willow
GH · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
Rubick
SumaiL · 10 games
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
uncrownedkings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
331 picks · 317 bans
Hoodwink
326 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 459 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 448 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 477 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 94%uncrownedkings 6%
The model gave 94% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 94%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1