ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
Jakirooften banned
GH · 24 games
Dazzlesignature
GH · 18 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 18 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Muerta
SumaiL · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 16 games
Bristleback
No!ob · 15 games
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 30 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 23 games
Warlock
Fly · 23 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 21 game
Chenoften banned
Fly · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
657 picks · 818 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 589 bans
Tusk
469 picks · 406 bans
Warlock
463 picks · 311 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1067 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 693 bans
Mars
380 picks · 618 bans
Shadow Fiend
379 picks · 986 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:15
Nigma Galaxy 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendrincyq
LunaTimado
PuckNo!ob
Ember SpiritAbed
BrewmasterDavai
MarsSabeRLight-
Shadow ShamanOmaR
WarlockFly
DazzleGH
RingmasterHellscream
Game 2prediction missed21:41
Nigma Galaxy 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidrincyq
WindrangerTimado
PuckNo!ob
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
TimbersawDavai
Void SpiritAbed
JakiroGH
TinyHellscream
Shadow ShamanOmaR
WarlockFly
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2