DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 13 games
Winners
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
408 picks · 513 bans
Muerta
397 picks · 322 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
Lion
344 picks · 166 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 421 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 768 bans
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:30
Nigma Galaxy 93%Winners 7%
The model gave 93% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 14:11.
Game 2prediction correct10:35
Nigma Galaxy 93%Winners 7%
The model gave 93% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 93%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2