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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
49%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 29 games
76%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 43 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 20 games
65%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Largo
Largooften banned
prblms · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
632 picks · 443 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
600 picks · 343 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
440 picks · 647 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 496 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 354 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 497 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 380 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 973 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:30
Nigma Galaxy 59%Yellow Submarine 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 57:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSumaiL
60% · 28 games55% · 46 games
Drow RangerShigetsu
Drow Ranger
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
47% · 70 games44% · 37 games
Earth SpiritRain
Earth Spirit
Viper
ViperLorenof
49% · 87 games47% · 233 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
53% · 218 games50% · 246 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Tusk
TuskGH
44% · 344 games55% · 185 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction missed22:28
Nigma Galaxy 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSumaiL
54% · 76 games50% · 61 game
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
61% · 54 games46% · 208 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Viper
ViperLorenof
54% · 119 games46% · 251 game
Storm SpiritRain
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskGH
53% · 426 games46% · 85 games
TechiesWein
Techies
Lion
LionOmaR
50% · 128 games44% · 198 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct36:27
Nigma Galaxy 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:04:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
53% · 168 games53% · 9 games
SpectreShigetsu
Spectre
Sniper
SniperLorenof
38% · 31 game59% · 166 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
48% · 51 game50% · 264 games
PangolierRain
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
49% · 252 games47% · 78 games
TechiesWein
Techies
Axe
AxeOmaR
52% · 219 games47% · 204 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3