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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 7 games
43%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
25%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Copy · 4 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 3 games
67%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 25 games
72%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 23 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
68%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 483 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 425 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
267 picks · 235 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 450 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
259 picks · 173 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 713 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 345 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
241 picks · 389 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:10
Ninja Penguins 43%Team Tickles 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverLowskill
47% · 53 games60% · 110 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckCopy
39% · 214 games54% · 163 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusCorrupted
50% · 224 games53% · 51 game
SvenUlnit
Sven
Lion
LionAlexxo
47% · 137 games53% · 178 games
BatriderNARMAN
Batrider
52% · 126 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed25:20
Ninja Penguins 43%Team Tickles 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLowskill
57% · 100 games49% · 72 games
JuggernautUlnit
Juggernaut
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCopy
47% · 177 games42% · 126 games
WindrangerLorenof
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
55% · 21 game56% · 122 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesAlexxo
54% · 310 games47% · 57 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
43% · 231 game
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 62%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2