Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 13 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 10 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 10 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Batridersignature
ntakii · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 6 games
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 6 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 6 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
300 picks · 600 bans
Void Spirit
273 picks · 345 bans
Mars
238 picks · 422 bans
Earth Spirit
221 picks · 178 bans
Keeper of the Light
192 picks · 364 bans
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 592 bans
Rubick
191 picks · 103 bans
Phoenix
187 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total67% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
No Bounty Hunter 40%Brame 60%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycankAAN
MorphlingFocus
EnigmaBliNcc
IoW1sh-
Ember Spiritntakii
MarsSkyLark
Earth SpiritdEsire
PhoenixCTOMAHEH1
Witch DoctorFlash
TuskSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct15:42
No Bounty Hunter 41%Brame 59%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautkAAN
Wraith KingFocus
Windrangerntakii
Dragon KnightW1sh-
TidehunterBliNcc
Dark SeerSkyLark
TuskdEsire
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
GrimstrokeFlash
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 67%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2